Trigger

The incident as pictured in a contemporary newspaper

It's been a century since that 28^th of June which ended the world as it was known since then, although The Great War wouldn't start until a month later. Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir presumptive to the Austria-Hungarian throne, was in a trip to observe the scheduled military manoeuvres in Bosnia, as commanded a year earlier by the Emperor Franz Joseph I (Empress Sisi's husband, for those of you fond of romantic literature). After a brief inspection of the military barracks, the six car motorcade led Franz Ferdinand and his wife Duchess Sophie to open the state museum of Sarajevo in its new premises.

Danilo Ilic, local leader of the Serbian Black Hand, had spread six of his men along the motorcade route to make they wouldn't miss their chance. Two of them missed their shot. The third one, Nedeljco Cabrinovik, threw his bomb at 10:10am but the timed detonator made it explode under the next car or the parade. Alerted by the explosion the procession sped away towards the town hall, cancelling the visit to the museum. The other three murderers failed to act as the cars passed them at high speed. History would have been so different if Franz Ferdinand stayed in instead of going to the Sarajevo Hospital to pay a visit to the affected by the explosion. On that second motorcade they were supposed to avoid trouble using a different route, but no one told the driver and thus they ended up being too close to Gavrilo Princip position, one of the murderers who after failing had moved to a better position. Princip got as close as five feet and fired two shots with a Belgian-made 9x17mm semi-automatic pistol. The first bullet wounded the Archduke in the jugular vein, the second inflected an abdominal wound on the Duchess. Both died the same day. The Austria-Hungarian Empire demanded Serbia an explanation, this one answered that the matter did not concern the Serbian Government. So the former sent the July Ultimatum, which was not conceded, and then the declaration of war. Germany was an ally of the Empire while the Kingdom of Serbia was supported by Russia, member of the Triple Entente alongside France and the United Kingdom. Hence the conflict between Serbia and Austria-Hungary was the trigger of the first world wide conflict.

Alliances map of Europe in 1914

But why did Serbia attack its neighbour? That goes back to the Treaty of Berlin signed in 1878 by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Austria-Hungarian Empire, Italy and the Russian Empire. With that treaty Serbia, Romania and Montenegro where recognised as independent kingdoms, but Bosnia remained attached to the Austria-Hungarian Empire. On the first years of the 20^th Century Serbian military officers led by Dragutin Dimitrijevic, who also took part on the 1914 assassination as the leader of the Black Hand group, stormed into the Serbian Royal Palace, killed the former king and installed in its place Peter I of Karadordevic. A new dynasty more nationalistic was born and their purpose was to reunify all the territories that belonged to the Serbian Empire (which collapsed on 1371, get over it!) including Bosnia.

So even if Austria-Hungary (and Germany) longed for an excuse to attack, it was originally Serbia who, in the shadows, broke the Treaty of Berlin. Once the conflict started the Allies came out defending one each other and although the Triple Entente was helping the “guilty” kingdom it really didn't matter any more because all these countries had little unsolved issues between them. The tension had been in the air for so long and the death of Franz Ferdinand was only the straw that broke the ice.

What would had happen if the Archduke had listened to his wife fears instead of enjoying the chance of a day out with her (as a Czech countess she was treated as a commoner at the Austrian Court so public displays of affection were not aloud, not even to sit next to her husband)? Highly probably, and sadly, history wouldn't have change much. Germany or Russian, the most eager for battle, would have found another excuse among their allies to face each other and extend their territories. Who knows if in that case Germany would also have had to pay, unfairly, most of the costs of the war and hence lead Europe, and the world, to the second major conflict of the last century. Because, after all, the Second World War was in a huge part the continuation of these unsolved issues that had been wounding Europe for so long time.

Archduk Franz Ferdinand and Duquess Sophia on 28th June 1914 in Sarajevo